La Treizième Étoile: 02/05/10 - 09/05/10 Blog Archives
Cornish Flag An Tredhegves Steren - agas pennfenten a nowodhow dhyworth an Kesunyans Europek.
History made as Caroline Lucas becomes first UK Green MP

Friday, 7 May 2010
Caroline Lucas MPHistory was made in the early hours of Friday morning as Caroline Lucas became the first Green Member of Parliament after winning the seat of Brighton Pavilion.

Ms Lucas, the leader of the Green party of England and Wales and a current MEP serving the South-East, said voters had made history by electing her to Parliament on a swing of 8.4%, amounting a majority of 1,252 ahead of Labour's Nancy Platts in second place.

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June 13th election date set as Belgium faces leadership crisis

Thursday, 6 May 2010
Belgian lawmakers have today voted to dissolve parliament in order to pave the way for new parliamentary elections on June 13th, just two weeks before the country takes on the rotating presidency of the European Union.

The move came after the former government collapsed when the Flemish liberal Open VLD party pulled out of the Prime Minister Yves Leterme’s five-party coalition, and threatened to force a parliamentary vote to split the Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorde (BHV) voting district, Belgium’s only bilingual constituency.

The country has been torn by political infighting between the parties of the Dutch-speaking majority and French-speaking minority over their respective rights in the Brussels electoral district ever since elections in 2007.

Flemish parties, including Mr Leterme’s own Christian democrat CD&V, want to split the three BHV districts along language lines, which would end the deal now whereby French-speakers in the Flemish districts can vote for both Dutch and French-speaking parties, while Dutch-speakers in Wallonia have no such rights.

The crisis comes just two months before Belgium takes over the rotating presidency of the European Union, and they are keen to avoid the crisis running into Belgium’s EU presidency, it could be acutely embarrassing for the country.

In a joint statement issued following the coalition’s collapse, the King and the Prime Minister said that “a political crisis would be inopportune in the current circumstances as it would seriously damage Belgians’ social and economic welfare as well as undermining Belgium’s role in Europe.

Former Belgian Prime Minister Wilfried Martens told Flemish television that the prestige of the country had risen enormously since the appointment of Herman Van Rompuy as president of the European Council. “But if the government falls and the country lands in crisis in the run-up to July 1, that would be quite dramatic for us in a wider European context,” he said.

Outgoing Belgian PM Yves Leterme (Photo: 7sur7.be)Believe it or not, this is actually Mr Leterme’s third resignation.

In July 2008, he first offered his resignation after failing to patch up the rift between the Dutch-speaking Flemish and French-speaking Walloons. Back then, the King refused to accept his resignation – but accepted it in December the same year, amid allegations that the government had interfered with the courts.

In theory, the June 13th date would allow a government to form before the presidency begins. But remember it took Mr Leterme nine months to build the eventual five-party coalition after the last election, raising the question of whether his successor will manage a swifter transition this time round…



'The Greek financial crisis has revealed a two-speed Eurozone'

Translation as published on Cafebabel.comThe Greek financial crisis, and the decision of the financial ministers of Eurozone member states to shore up the Hellenic states to the degree of €110 billion over three years, underlines the importance of European economic solidarity whilst also revealing its limits.

What happened to Super-Euro? (Photo: Estonian Foreign Ministry/Flickr)For many, behind economic solidarity, the overall concept of Europe is at stake: on one hand, Angela Merkel has announced she would like to see countries sanctioned in the future for failing to respect the Stability and Growth Pact, whilst on the other hand, the anti-globalisation militants of ATTAC are calling on the ECB to buy the Greek public debt in an act of solidarity.

Céline Antonin is an economist and Eurozone specialist at the OFCE. Ahead of the Eurogroup summit on the 7th May, where the attendees should confirm their €110 billion financial aid package to Greece, she reflects on the three burning questions to arise from the crisis which apply also to the European Union:

Author: Are the credit-rating agencies responsible for the crisis and the Greek debt?

Céline Antonin: The credit-rating agencies are there to advice on the insolvency risk of a country or a state, in other words the probability that they will default of the debt repayments that it has accrued. The three main agencies (which represent nearly 90% of the market) are the American agencies Standard and Poor’s, Moody’s and Fitch. They were singled out during the subprime crisis partly because of the possible conflict of interest that exists between their credit-rating business and the consulting activities they all carry out with banks (a situation to be resolved by the European rules of November 7th 2009 which should come into force in 2010 in France that will prohibits credit-rating agencies to combine both these two functions).

When speaking not of the private debt, but of the sovereign debt of the state, it is difficult to make the credit-rating agencies directly responsible for the current situation. They are not in effect responsible for the situation of the Greek public finances. However, they could well be accused of having added “fuel to the fire”.

Indeed by downgrading the rating of Greece, they have contributed to increasing the risk premium demanded by investors, and therefore have increased the burden of debt, fuelling a vicious cycle. We therefore cannot say that they are solely responsible for the Greek situation, even if they have done nothing to calm things down.


Author: Is Germany to blame for having dragged its heels before helping Greece?

CA: I don’t want to be made the defender of Germany, but you have to say it faced with numerous constraints in this affair. In the financial aid package of €110 billion, 80 billion is to be put up by the Eurozone states at a rate of interest of 5%. The share issued in turn to each country will be calculated in proportion to their capital at the ECB. Germany is therefore the main creditor of the Greek rescue: without her there would be no programme.

Two phenomena are blocking the Chancellor Angela Merkel. Firstly, the German constitution is very restrictive when it comes to the federal state being able to grant financial assistance to any member state of the EU. It is therefore necessary to amend it in order to participate in the bailout plan negotiated between the EU and the IMF.

Secondly, the German regional elections are taking place on May 9th, and according to a survey conducted by France 24 and Die Welt (in which 1009 German citizens were sampled), 57% were opposed to a Greek financial bailout plan, which does not encourage Germany to be overly cooperative.

The Germans also envisage that in accepting to help Greece without flinching, other fragile member states such as Portugal or Spain could be the next on the list to seek financial assistance. Our German neighbours do not want to be in a bottomless barrel. At the same time, this procrastination is not related to the deterioration in the repayment obligations of the Greek debt. One could say that the time required by Angela Merkel to enter back into the dialogue of economic solidarity has not calmed Greek tensions.

Author: Could the Euro area really be dissolved? What does this crisis tell you about the economic union in Europe?

CA: Kicking Greece out of the Eurozone would not resolve this situation. Firstly, because the treaties do not foresee it. Next, because its debt would remain denominated in Euros while its currency would be devalued and this would render its debt burden all the more heavier to shoulder. Instead, the Euro is today an opportunity for Greece. This economic crisis is one of the worst storms that Europe has had to face in its recent history, but the bad weather has recently been more in the political arena (the Bolkenstein directive, Lisbon Treaty, etc…)

It all depends on the consensus that will be found in the May 7th meeting: if the Eurozone countries are able to find a quick consensus the Eurozone will be able to come away stronger, having avoided the worst, but the diplomatic procrastination of these past few weeks have undeniably served as a blow to the Eurozone and to the European Union, even a rejection.

The Greek crisis has revealed the deep divisions that exist: Germany has still not renounced the policy of the strong Euro and the differences are very distinct between the states which respect the Stability Pact and those which are not. In short, what has been left viable by the chain reaction started by the Greek crisis is the existence of a Eurozone at many speeds.

Interview conducted by Emmanuel Haddad.
My translation from the original French.



The UK MEPs hoping to become MPs: an overview of their chances on May 6th

Saturday, 1 May 2010
In case you missed it, there is a General Election planned in the United Kingdom for Thursday 6th May in which Gordon Brown’s Labour Party is widely expected to lose its status as the governing majority. But amongst the candidates seeking election in the 650 constituencies that currently compose the country, are 11 current Members of the European Parliament.

Here I give a short overview of their election battleground in which they are campaigning to exchange their seat in Brussels and Strasbourg for one in Westminster.

With the exception of UK Green party leader Caroline Lucas, it hardly comes as a surprise to note the other declared standing candidates all campaign for the UK to leave the European Union…

AGNEW, Stuart (EFD/UKIP) – Broadland

Broadland is a new constituency at the election, replacing the new abolished Mid Norfolk seat and also includes part of the North Norfolk and Norwich North seats. In 2005, the seat as it was then was won by the Conservatives with a majority of 6,573 and is one of the Liberal Democrats’ targeted seats. UKIP polled only 4% of the vote last time so a large swing is required for Agnew to win the seat.

BATTEN, Gerard (EFD/UKIP) – Romford

Romford is a very safe Conservative seat reclaimed back from Labour in 2001. The Conservative majority was increased further in 2005 to 12,120 accumulating 59% of the vote. The UKIP candidate in 2005 received only 2.2% of the votes so an ever larger swing is required for Batten to win the seat.

BRONS, Andrew (Non-attached/BNP) – Keighley

A Liberal seat until 1918, the Yorkshire seat of Keighley has since regularly changed hands between the Conservative Party and Labour. In 2005, Labour polled 44.7% of the vote to win the seat ahead of the Conservatives (34.3%). Mr Brons will be standing in the seat his leader Nick Griffin fought for in 2005, finishing last with 9.2% of the vote. The BNP vote increased by 9% that time around but an even bigger increase is needed for the right-wing party to gain their first seat in Westminster.

CAMPBELL BANNERMAN, David (EFD/UKIP) – South Suffolk

Suffolk South is a very safe Conservative seat in which the incumbent minister first secured a majority of 11,269 at the 1983 election. Although this was cut to 4,175 votes at the 1997 election, and to 6,600 in 2005, it is unlikely to change colour. An ambitious target seat for the Liberal Democrats this time around, UKIP polled 5% of the vote in 2005 and is unlikely to poll better.

CLARK, Derek (EFD/UKIP) – Northampton South

Mr Clark is standing again in this constituency which has switched between Conservative to Labour and back to Conservative in 2005. The incumbent MP won the seat then with a majority of 4,419 votes, which is four-times the amount of total votes Mr Clark polled for UKIP in 2005. He will hope to increase his vote this time around even though the result last time was lower than the previous year.

FARAGE, Nigel (EFD/UKIP) – Buckingham

Breaking with Parliamentary convention, the former leader of UKIP is standing against the Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow in Buckingham. The convention is that no party puts up a candidate against the Speaker so Mr Farage is the most notable opposition candidate. There are plenty of other independent candidates standing but it is still considered a safe Conservative seat (although Bercow is no longer officially Conservative since becoming Speaker). In 2005, when he was not the Speaker, the Conservatives won 57.4% of the vote, compared to 3% for UKIP. While not expected to lose, Mr Bercow has clearly been fluttered by Mr Farage’s candidacy so there could be a surprise here. One to watch.

GRIFFIN, Nick (Non-attached/BNP) – Barking

Barking has been a Labour seat since 1945 and is the current seat for veteran Labour minister Margaret Hodge. However, this time around she faces a tougher breed of candidate in Mr Griffin of the BNP. It is certainly possible for Griffin to do well here with the BNP in 2005 out-polling the Liberal Democrats with 16.9% of the vote to take third place and were only 27 votes behind the Conservatives. Former boxer Frank Maloney is standing here for UKIP, but it is Griffin and the BNP vote to watch out for here – it is the BNP’s best chance of winning a seat in Westminster.

LUCAS, Caroline (Greens) – Brighton, Pavilion

Once a traditional Conservative seaside town, 1995 Labour won the seat and has held it since despite the majority falling in both 2001 and 2005. However, the story in 2005 was provided by the Green Party who ran the Conservatives very close for second place. This time around its leader Caroline Lucas is fighting the cause in what is a three-way marginal seat. Despite polling 22% in 2005, the Greens are highly expected to claim their very first seat in UK Parliament thanks additionally to the ‘Cleggmania’ which could transfer votes from Labour and the Conservatives to the Green ‘alternative’. Again, one to watch closely.

NATTRASS, Mike (EFD/UKIP) – South Staffordshire

Containing no major towns, this rural constituency has been Conservative since 1997. In 2005 the death of the Lib Dem candidate during the general election campaign caused the poll to be postponed until a deferred poll in June. Nonetheless the majority of 8,346 was enough to re-elected Sir Patrick Cormack, the second longest-serving MP, who is not standing this time around. In 2005, the UKIP polled 10.4%, an increase of 6% from 2001 which is why they are expecting another good result, although very unlikely to gain the seat.

NUTTALL, Paul (EFD/UKIP) – Bootle

Bootle, in Merseyside, has been a safe Labour seat since the outbreak of World War II. Incumbent Joe Benton took hold of the seat in 1990 and has remained MP ever since although his majority was cut in 2001 and 2005, and still stands at more than 16,000. Mr Nuttall is again standing for UKIP after obtaining only 4.1% of the vote in the first time it contested election in that seat.

SINCLAIRE, Nikki (Non-attached/Independent) – Meriden

The now independent MEP after her expulsion from the UKIP party is standing in the ‘centre of England’ constituency of Meriden which is safe Conservative with a majority of over 7,000. The biggest fight here will come from the Labour party which polled 33% in 2005, so Ms Sinclaire will have to fight hard to keep her deposit standing for Solihull and Meriden Residents Association (SAMRA).



Ones to Watch: Caroline Lucas (Brighton Pavilion), Nick Griffin (Barking) and Nigel Farage (Buckingham).

Most likely to become an MP: Caroline Lucas (Brighton Pavilion).